- Many investors focus on a top-down ‘forecast’ or ‘view-based’ investing approach, seeking to identify the path of key economic variables, the push and pull of political and central bank policy stresses, and to anticipate what they may mean for markets
- Yet forecasting can be fraught with uncertainty in the political arena, and can lead to erroneous assumptions. We believe that applying forecasts can introduce significant volatility into returns
- We make the case for navigating elevated uncertainty surrounding outcomes and reactions, by focusing on the value available for the risks that prevail, and retaining ‘dry powder’ to take advantage of opportunities that arise
The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the original amount they invested.